And So It Begins.

Short post today, as I believe that quite soon Ireland will have no access to the Internet anyway. So what's the point? The flame of our independence is now flickering, sputtering in the darkness of our own incompetence and inability. Are we concerned? Apparently not, as the Irish media is primarily concerned with the Pope's visit to the UK, the remaining fallout from Portergate, and with the discovery of Radon in 600 Irish homes.

Meanwhile, the world media is also keeping its beady eye on Ireland, but they seem to have different interest to our local newshounds. They don't give a damn about Biffo anymore, having obviously deduced that he is not worthy of attention, and they care little for what the Pope's visit means for Ireland, or anywhere else for that matter. They do, however, care about the fact that the Government is on the cusp of calling the IMF in, and that our bond spreads have shot to over 6.3%.

If you look at the link above to the Irish 10 year bond price tracker, you will see, in the little graph at the top of the page, an analysis of the performance of Irish bonds over the last year (i.e. how much we are being charged for a loan). Two spikes are prominent - one in May, and one now. The one in May was caused by general concerns plaguing the Eurozone over the likelihood of a Greek default. The spike now, however, is all down to market sentiment regarding Ireland.

Simply put, the markets are as frightened now as they were in the midst of Greece's troubles (and the world can see that Greece is a basket-case) but this time, the terror driving our cost of borrowing is solely caused by the management of the Irish economy and banking sector, or lack thereof. We cannot blame this on foreigners - not the Greeks, not the Germans, not even the Brits.

We are about to see a homegrown crisis of Hellenic proportions.

I'm going to buy a shotgun, a tent, and some canned food over the weekend.

Bread and Games - Soon to be Minus the Bread

Last night, Ireland shuffled down another step on the slow descent into financial Hades, as Standard & Poor's cut our credit rating from AA to AA -. Despite the fact that the rating agencies seem to base their grading system on the Sports Day awards ceremony of a Junior Infants class (Ah, the memories! "Don't cry Aitor, you get the "Good Hustle" Trophy for trying your best!), the - (minus) in Ireland's rating is more telling than the somewhat empty AA.

I can't really pretend to know how this whole bond market thingy-majig works, but what I can tell you is that this latest downgrade means the cost of Ireland's bank bailout will probably rise from €30-35 bn to €45-50 bn.

As you can imagine, this is the story on everyone's lips.

Right behind the Rose of Tralee winner.

And the stupid cat-in-a-bin story in England.

And the obviously pressing national importance of Senator Ivor Callely's resignation from Fianna Fail following chronic address amnesia.

But after those stories, everyone is talking about it.

If only: it barely featured on Tonight with Vincent Browne last night, and was given a passing mention on the RTE news this morning. It was left in the dust as "the most texted about news story" on Newstalk (admittedly, it is on the front page of the Independent).

No one here seems ready to admit that Ireland is on a serious hiding to nowhere. We have not turned a corner, reached the bottom, or started the recovery.The people of this island go about their daily lives, grumbling about the extra taxes they have to pay, or the decrease in services, without ever asking: " Who is responsible? And what can I do to change things?" They go on expecting that things are going to get better, when they are just about to turn infinitesimally worse.

Occasionally, the more volatile citizens will phone Liveline, where there anger can be carefully managed before being dismissed by the state broadcaster.

But that's it - a few angry words over a greedy Senator, some hysterical caterwauling over a cat. The slow dissolution of Ireland's financial reputation, and our stamping with the label of "Top-European Debt Monkey" - that's a little hard to follow. There's too many distractions, too many pop news stories that catch the eye; the bread and games are too enticing.

Only problem is that, soon, our Irish Caesars won't be able to give us any bread. And, to strangle the metaphor further, we will have fiddled while they let Rome burn.

Endgame Ireland

Ladies and gentlemen, start your fans...as a noxious substance is about to hit them. We are in endgame, in my learned opinion ( how learned you ask? Well I've read at least 3 books on economics, one of which was quite expensive. Expensive automatically means its better).

Ok, so I'm not learned. But many other people are, and they are beginning to notice things like the head of our Central Bank, Patrick Honohan, referring to the spreads on our bonds (vs the German rate, now a 3% difference) as ridiculous. In other words, when we go to borrow money from foreigners (bloody foreigners, coming over here and lending us money!) we have to pay interest rates which are "ridiculous". This is now an actual economic term in Ireland.

A number of problems are about to rear their ugly heads. A bank guarantee offered by the Irish government is going to run out at the end of September, when we will get to see whether investors truly trust the banks. I'm betting that they don't. Whats more, the debts of the stinkiest of Irish banks, the nationalised Anglo-Irish, are currently considered separate to the state's balance sheet, as the EU sees these debts as viable business assets. But that might (indeed, almost certainly) will change. When that happens, Irish debt will reach around 112% of GNP. That's right, we'll be Greece without the sun or the millenia of civilisation.

But don't worry people, our government has two clever ideas. The first is that they've gone on holidays. Hooray for holidays!

The second: let me introduce you to our crack suicide squad. Suicide squad, deploy!