Paddywhackery and the Death of Irish Ambition

POTUS arrived today - I've just watched Barack Obama land at Dublin airport with an aerial entourage of Chinooks and Blackhawks larger than the Irish Air Corps. This visit, like that of the Queen last week, represents a major opportunity for Ireland to portray itself as a modern nation, and not just the newest, most bankruptiest lander of Germany. But unlike the visit of Her Majesty last week, it seems we are intent on squandering the exposure of Obama's trip on cheap paddywhackery.

Her Majesty's itinerary included a visit to the Tyndall Institute in Cork, a leading research facility in Ireland. She went to the GAA's headquarters, Croke Park, which is the site with great historical resonance of course, but also exhibits the abilities and capabilities of one of Ireland's greatest civic organisations. Even when we did play the old "luck of the Irish" card with Lizzie, we brought her to places like the Guiness Brewery and the National Stud, which while playing up to the national stereotypes of the Irish as hard drinkers who like the races, at least also exhibit Ireland's industrial prowess in two commercial sectors in which we have real form. In Britain, Ireland has been portrayed as a great place to visit - but also a perfect site for investment or research collaboration.

But where will President Obama go? I don't spite the people of Moneygall in Co. Offaly their visit from the leader of the free world - the visit will do great things for their area, and I hope the capitalise on it (I see one entrepreneur is doing great business selling T-Shirts to the US printed with the phrase "Is Feidir Linn" - the Irish for "Yes We Can"!) . But on the way back to Dublin could we not see if Marine One would drop in to Intel? Or maybe into Microsoft in Sandyford? True, I know that a Democratic president might be reluctant to highlight American companies investing in jobs abroad - but such a stop-off on his tour would at least highlight that Ireland offers Amercia more than just pubs and great, great grandfathers.

All the talk around this visit has been about boosting tourism, encouraging American desires to visit Ireland. In the short term that is a laudable goal, and will bring some money into the country - but nations do not get rich on tourism alone. The world leaders in tourist numbers last year were France, the US and China. But, to take China as an example, tourism has not produced that nation's stunning economic performance - rather, the growth in its tourism sector has been fuelled by gains won in other sectors first. Ireland should encourage tourism - but we need to develop all sectors of our exporting economy. After all, we all know what happened the last time our economy became a one-trick property pony.

Ah, maybe I'm just being cranky. I suppose I just don't like the leprechaun cliches too much - especially as the stereotype never seems to extend to the Irish having pots of gold.

The Final Ignominy - Taiwan Laughs At Us.

To be fair, they had a number of spot on cultural references; Father Ted is obviously big in Taiwan.

And for the Main Course, China Will Have - Ireland

China is now making its move to gain a foothold (both politically and commercially) in Europe by offering to buy Greek bonds. As Al Jazeera notes, the real benefit for China is not so much the acquisition of debt (although this will help shore up the Eurozone, an obvious market for Chinese exports), but rather the foothold it will give China in key European industries and facilities, such as ports and infrastructure. Not only will this potentially  provide yet more markets for Chinese firms that specialise in infrastructure development, it will also ensure China receives considerable political capital for its investment.

After Greece, I feel it is inevitable that China will look to Ireland - if not for economic opportunities (which are, as we sadly know, thin on the ground) then the immense political capital investment in Ireland offers. As with Greece, China has the opportunity to get into European infrastructure at low, low prices - but Ireland offers ports and airports much nearer the key European economies of France, Germany and the UK than Greece does.

More to the point, however, is what China stepping-in to save Ireland would say about China and its place in the world. Investing in a country like Greece, a non-English speaking economy with considerable socialist characteristics, is not a serious departure from China's existing investment efforts in Africa and Asia. All that is new is that the target of investment is in Europe. But investing in Ireland, an English-speaking nation smack bang in the Anglo-American axis, which for the last 10 years has been a poster-child for laissez-faire capitalism - that says China has arrived, and is now a force for the whole world (developed nations included) to reckon with. In effect, China will go from winning economically with a home team advantage (i.e. its spectacular domestic performance), to winning the away leg in front of hostile fans (gaining a global commercial presence).

It is, as I have said, inevitable - so how does Ireland handle it? Do we simply pretend like its not possible, or do we seize the Chinese opportunity with both hands. Are cash-rich shareholders with strategic vision such a bad thing?

Chastised by Seamy

One of the fascinating things about starting a blog is that, very occasionally, you find someone elsewhere on the web discussing something you've written. Such an event is even more intriguing when the cyberspace commentary on your words is provided by someone with very different political opinions to your own.
Such was the case yesterday when I noted that I had received traffic from the irishrepublican.net site, where my post on the Monaghan Soviet  was being discussed (and many thanks to the poster tireoghan for linking to this blog). One of the posters on the site, Seamy (which, my American friends please note, is pronounced "Shamey", not "Seemy") noted that my initial posting on Monaghan's revolutionary past had been somewhat incomplete, in that I suggested the Irish today were not prepared to engage in real political change, without providing any reasons as to why this inertia has developed. As Seamy put it himself:

So that fella's central arguement is that out of the blue, Irish people have become lazy, sluggish and politically disengaged without offering any credible explanations why. Does he fail also to grasp the basic concepts of dialectics which states that motion is never fixed and is always changing, the same can be applied to human nature and political attitudes. Yes, during the good ol' years of neoliberalism people were politically disengaged as naturally there is no real need to be when you have a more or less stable economic situation. However the financial crisis, the bank bailouts and now the frantic budget slashing all over Europe is waking people up to the realities of life under capitalism and drawing more and more previously apolitical workers and youth towards potentially revolutionary politics

In answer to Seamy's question, yes, I fail to grasp dialectics, mainly because I have no idea what the hell they are. Seamy is, unsportingly, using the unfair advantages often deployed by the left when I begin arguing with them: intelligence and big words. However, even my sluggish capitalist mind can, I believe, discern that Seamy is pointing out that the Irish may have become so addled with the comforts of the boom years that they are now incapable of revolution, reform or any other exciting r-words. I think that there is certainly some truth in this, although I would tend to argue (as did tireoghan) that this is due to a large section of our society still having a stake in the lies and falsehoods peddled by Fianna Fail. This is not just the big property developers either, but extends right through the citizenry of our "republic" - after all, the professional landlord/doctor/garda/teacher/shopkeeper with a few buy-to-lets are all just as fearful as Johnny Ronan of property trading at a realistic value. They too hope that we have "turned a corner" and that our Lazarus like recovery has begun.

I would also humbly point out to Seamy that to suggest that periods of plenty tend to dampen the ardour of the revolutionary spirit should result in the corollary that periods of want create the conditions for rebellion against the status quo. Yet the period of greatest need in the modern history of  Ireland, the Great Famine, resulted in only a tiny insurrection limited to one village in 1848, which can't compare to the events elsewhere in Europe over the course of that year.

By comparison, the rebellions of 1798 and 1916 occured in circumstances far less economically pressing than those of the Great Famine, yet something lit the touch paper of national consciousness, and the we rose up. In essence, it will take more than mere economic difficulties to get the Irish to seek change now - too many of us have a stake in the current system of government, and we do not seem to understand that the current FF government is ruling in the same manner as their British predecessors. The hunger for change is driven by emotion and a sense of justice as much as cold economics.

Seamy, if you (or any of your colleagues at Irish Republican) read this, I would be interested in hearing your thoughts.

Meet the New Owners - Part 2: The Chinese

The dragon awakens. All under heaven - tian xia. A Communist state with a capitalist economy. To get rich is glorious. Whether a cat is black or white doesn't matter, so long as it catches mice it's a good cat. The future superpower. The Middle Kingdom. The mountains are high and the emperor is far away.

The above are just some of the many tired clichés about China that I will diligently avoid in this post. The simple fact is this: the United States, the richest nation on earth, has given its wallet to China in exchange for the fleeting pleasure of cheaper consumer goods. China now has America's cash - bags of it (estimated between US$1.75 -1.87 trillion in June 2010). And while Rome's will was enforced by the legions, and Britannia's through the might of the Royal Navy, China will buy your compliance.

Both images property of Bank of China

As a strategy, it is superb in its subtlety and simplicity. Despite the massive expansion in its military budget, China has almost exclusively focussed on the defensive, militarily speaking. Even the much feared DF-21 is, in essence, a defensive weapon - China does not want to take on the US Navy globally with massive carrier battle groups of its own,  it simply wants to keep the US out of what Beijing perceives as its maritime patch, using a (admittedly game-changing) land-launched anti-ship missile. It is with economic force, rather than its military, that Beijing will go on the offensive - and economic offensives tend to be more profitable than military ones.

Seriously, America, it's defensive!

China's involvement in Africa is well-documented (interesting documentary on the topic by Al Jazeera's Witness programme here) and while some would argue this push into the continent is commercially driven rather than politically or diplomatically led, the latter will inevitably follow the former. China is in Africa, in a nutshell, to buy up resources in exchange for hard cash and investment in local infrastructure. I'm fairly certain that, if you were the leader of Zambia, you would listen to the country that was building your roads.

Having already developed a sphere of influence in Africa, both commercial interests and growing diplomatic stature are ensuring that China now looks for new horizons. Its involvement in South America is well underway - a growing presence in Europe is surely inevitable. Only this time, China will be the cash rich  senior member in an investment partnership, rather than merely the hawker of cheap OEM goods to European customers. How can money-savvy China pass up the opportunities that flagging economies in Europe like Spain, Portugal and Greece offer in terms of depreciated assets and the ability to acquire political capital and prestige at bargain basement prices? And if a flagging economy is a big draw for Chinese investors, well, no one flags better than Ireland!

What's more, the usual Irish gombeen approach to business won't work with the People's Republic of China - they know how to play us. Witness the recent promise by Chinese investors to create 1000 jobs in Athlone in a Euro-China business hub. Only catch- those 1000 jobs would be for Chinese immigrants, not the local Irish. The Chinese recognise that Ireland, for the last few years, has focussed almost exclusively on property to the detriment of all other sectors of the economy. And until we can offer them greater incentives than our over-stocked landbanks, the Chinese will only invest in one thing here - land.

Check your wallet, Wen.

That's why, in a rare note of seriousness, this blog is advocating that Ireland proctively grab China's future economic expansion into the EU as the opportunity we need to kick-start our economy, by offering China unique skills that set Ireland apart from our fellow EU members. We have one massive advantage over the rest of the EU for attracting Chinese investment - a little-known fact is that China is an English speaking country, or at least, it is fast on the road to becoming one. As the only English-speaking member of the Eurozone, and as a small, non-threatening nation with no history of imperialism, Ireland is ideally positioned to act as China's partner in Europe. Rather than seeking masses of manufacturing jobs, we need to offer China our knowledge of the EU regulatory environment, our experience of dealing with Brussels, and our ability to network throughout the community, to grow Ireland as the ideal destination for Chinese companies to locate logistics, sales and compliance hubs for their European operations.

Let's see you invade the pitch at Croker now.

 As a solution to our economic woes, its not perfect, and  much work needs to be done - such as beefing up Ireland's paltry representation in China, and introducing Chinese as at least an optional foreign language in schools would be a good start. But as a plan for the future, aiming to be China's gateway to Europe  beats waiting for Ireland's property market to rebound.

Meet the New Owners - Part 1: The Germans

With Irish bond yields having shot through the roof this morning, jumping from  5.744% to 6.046% and still climbing (BTW - I used a Bloomberg link; I feel so grown up!), I thought now would be a good time to look at Ireland's  various and many new potential owners. Today we start with the leading candidates to reposses this misty land, the Germans:

The Germans

Your debts are how big?

First, let me say that I will resist all the obvious puns and jokes- no talk of Reichs, or panzers, or blitzkriegs; not even as metaphors. In truth, the Germans today are frankly the polar opposite of the taciturn, expansionist, martial image much mocked by 1960's British sit-coms. The 21st century German is highly reluctant to engage in armed foreign adventures, and when they do; well let's just say they no longer display that hard Prussian backbone - they are, after all, the only army whose soldiers have actually gained weight in Afghanistan.

No, today's German is more interested in saving than in sallying forth - and that's where their power lies. While we in Ireland were splurging the cash, using Lamborghinis as garden sheds, burning Manolo Blahniks as a cheap energy source, or occasionally filling our pools, Scrooge McDuck style, with gold coins, Angela was saving - like the cold, calculating monster she is!

What sort of people are these Germans, I wonder, who save in times of plenty rather than engaging in perfectly healthy cash bathing? What sort of inhuman automatons display such disturbing levels of responsibility and forward planning? Look at you there, smug and secure with your steins of beer and low bond-yields:

Who's laughing now, Ireland?

Well we, the proud people of Ireland will accept your help, Germany, but I hope you realise how lucky you are, being given a very important part in the Irish economic miracle. I hope you realise that you're the ones who will benefit in the long run, being able to tap into such dynamic sectors of the Irish economy as building and property development. I bet your Siemens and your Kuehne & Nagel and your Puma's look pretty pathetic now, right, next to the might of heroes like Bernard McNamara and Sean Dunne.

Eh, sorry, what was that Angela? You might not actually give us any money?

Ah, well now, Angela, let's not be hasty! I'm sure Ireland has a lot to offer Germany, em, you know, economically like - the billions of Euro you give us, and the political fall-out for you among the German voters: I'm sure it will be well worth it!

No?

Ok, Angela you want to play hardball? Fine! - if Ireland goes down, we bring the Euro with us, possibly fatally wounding European integration - and that will mean you Germans have wasted the last 50 years on a European project that went nowhere. So you have no choice, Angela, you have to help us!

That's right Germans - your savings are going to be paying my pension!

Woo-hoo! The weakest link - sweetest spot on the chain!

But yes, we know Germany - you told us so!

Bread and Games - Soon to be Minus the Bread

Last night, Ireland shuffled down another step on the slow descent into financial Hades, as Standard & Poor's cut our credit rating from AA to AA -. Despite the fact that the rating agencies seem to base their grading system on the Sports Day awards ceremony of a Junior Infants class (Ah, the memories! "Don't cry Aitor, you get the "Good Hustle" Trophy for trying your best!), the - (minus) in Ireland's rating is more telling than the somewhat empty AA.

I can't really pretend to know how this whole bond market thingy-majig works, but what I can tell you is that this latest downgrade means the cost of Ireland's bank bailout will probably rise from €30-35 bn to €45-50 bn.

As you can imagine, this is the story on everyone's lips.

Right behind the Rose of Tralee winner.

And the stupid cat-in-a-bin story in England.

And the obviously pressing national importance of Senator Ivor Callely's resignation from Fianna Fail following chronic address amnesia.

But after those stories, everyone is talking about it.

If only: it barely featured on Tonight with Vincent Browne last night, and was given a passing mention on the RTE news this morning. It was left in the dust as "the most texted about news story" on Newstalk (admittedly, it is on the front page of the Independent).

No one here seems ready to admit that Ireland is on a serious hiding to nowhere. We have not turned a corner, reached the bottom, or started the recovery.The people of this island go about their daily lives, grumbling about the extra taxes they have to pay, or the decrease in services, without ever asking: " Who is responsible? And what can I do to change things?" They go on expecting that things are going to get better, when they are just about to turn infinitesimally worse.

Occasionally, the more volatile citizens will phone Liveline, where there anger can be carefully managed before being dismissed by the state broadcaster.

But that's it - a few angry words over a greedy Senator, some hysterical caterwauling over a cat. The slow dissolution of Ireland's financial reputation, and our stamping with the label of "Top-European Debt Monkey" - that's a little hard to follow. There's too many distractions, too many pop news stories that catch the eye; the bread and games are too enticing.

Only problem is that, soon, our Irish Caesars won't be able to give us any bread. And, to strangle the metaphor further, we will have fiddled while they let Rome burn.

Leaf in the stream

I have a newsflash for you Ireland: we are not at the centre of the world. I know, I was shocked too! Apparently, that bowl of shamrocks Biffo gave Obama last St. Patrick's Day doesn't even have a special place of honour beside the presidential bed; nor does Obama give it a little pat each night before falling asleep, whispering "I love you Ireland".

Having adjusted to the fact that Ireland is not the nation on everyone's lips, and that indeed many Americans don't know where we are, and that many Brits think we still belong to them, I realise now that such anonymity on the global stage is no bad thing. Sometimes. After all, up till now our bluffing regarding the state of our financial affairs has been accepted (hook, line and sinker one might say) by the international press and, more importantly, by the bond markets. Its hardly surprising really; after all, outside of Ireland there is noone analysing the Irish economy as a full-time job. At best, our financial announcements get a quarter of an hour on the desk of the Moody's analyst who handles the smaller Euro economies, snugly tucked between a report by the Maltese central bank, and an article on the financial situation in Slovenia.

Unsurprisingly then, our bluster about "taking the tough decisions" has been accepted on face value, as no one has had the time or inclination to look behind our words. If the general information available on Ireland was positive (given the circumstances) it was broadly accepted internationally that Ireland was on the road to recovery.

However, with more negative reports emanating from our shores - as they now are - we find ourselves in a pickle. No one is taking the time to see if things in Ireland are truly as bad as the bond markets think, and consequently, it is generally accepted that Ireland is in trouble. This leads to a vicious downgrading spiral as Irish debt becomes more expensive to fund because everyone knows that Irish debt is expensive to fund. And because it is accepted that Ireland's economy has some serious structural flaws, even if we do address things, no one will believe us!

Nothing better sums up how general market ignorance about Ireland has turned from an opportunity to a threat like the recent column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. An expert on all things financial, AEP notes how Anglo-Irish Bank is a serious threat to Ireland's long-term financial stability. He notes that the €25 billion provided by the state to bail-out the banks has almost all gone to Anglo, who he refers to throughout the article as AIB (Anglo-Irish Bank), generally painting the bank in a bad light.

Only problem is that AIB is actually Allied Irish Bank which, unlike Anglo, has not been nationalised, and is still quoted on the stock market. Whether AEP's switcheroo has had an impact on AIB's share price is hard to say, as they were already in the toilet has helped push AIB's shares even further into the toilet is hard to tell. However, if even one of the sharpest financial commentators around can only allocate a cursory level of research to Ireland's financial situation, what chance have we of getting a fair hearing from the big cats of the global markets jungle? EDIT - Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan notes commentators confusion regarding AIB/Anglo an issue.

A little bit of India in Cahersiveen - it's all about optics, people!

As I discussed below, some very nerdy myths have been aired in relation to Defence and Security on a thread over at Politics.ie. A real beaut has been the claim that, due to an administrative oversight by some bespectacled bureaucrats in Britain, during the 19th century the plans for a Royal Irish Constabulary police barracks were mixed up with those destined for a militia fort in India. The result, according to the myth, stands today in the town of Cahersiveen, Co. Kerry. As you can see above, (h/t to saintinexile on flickr for the image) it is somewhat out of place.

Alas, this myth is probably not true, unless the Brits repeated the same mistake throughout Ireland in towns such as Ballyduff in Co. Waterford (below right), where the station is apparently still in use today by our own boys in blue, the Garda Siochana (isn't it great, lads, how the state invests in your work at least once a century?).

In fact, it is to the eternal shame of Ireland's erstwhile colonisers that these stations were not a product of bureaucratic oversight, but rather a deliberate effort to build defensive structures (in what was, after all, a part of the United Kingdom) throughout the latter half of the 19th century (Cahersiveen was built in 1875, and Ballyduff in 1870). A good summary of the defensive features of these barracks is found at Building of Ireland, and all I can say is that these are not the police stations you build in a country you respect, or among people who you view as equals. True, these buildings were a direct response to the Fenian Rising, but that rebellion was most remarkable for the degree of military inability displayed by the participants. Fortress style stations that would not have seemed out of place on the Khyber Pass were probably overkill, one must admit.

Surprisingly enough, by the dawn of the twentieth century many Irish people did not entirely trust the RIC, and consequently (and somewhat unfairly) it became one of the first targets for attack during the War of Independence. What's more, very quickly the RIC members themselves (the vast bulk of whom were Irish Catholics) were quickly torn between competing loyalties in the increasingly "us vs them" atmosphere of the conflict, leading to low morale and desertions. Perhaps if Britain had put more effort in to developing an effective and fair police service during the 19th century, rather than providing a Constabulary with the tools for an occupation that (let's face it) had already been more or less successfully completed, we might still be in the Union, or at least our exit may have been less bloody.

Obviously, those of you in Iraq/Afghanistan, or with recent experience of those theatres, already know how much optics matter. But if you ever have any doubts, be sure to speak up when your superiors suggest that Operation Evangelical Storm or Mullah's Bewilderment are good names for your upcoming offensive. Otherwise, 100 years from now, a young man in Kabul might be wondering "Why does that madrassah look so much like an American Burger King?".

Half-assed Magnificence: Irish Defence Procurement

Delightfully Waltish thread over at Politics.ie, detailing myths and legends surrounding the Irish Defence Forces. All the usual are there: the Rangers are banned from bars near the Curragh due to their homicidal tendencies, troops have to shout "BANG!" during exercises because we have no actual rounds (live or otherwise) for them to use, and that Naval Officers liked to tell visiting Soviet crews about Ireland's secret submarine. But also discussed has been Ireland's incredibly bizarre ability to hold helicopter procurement competitions which are usually won by the least impressive aircraft on offer.

First, at the beginning of the decade we had the competition for a medium-life helo contract between the Sikorsky S-92 and the Eurocopter Cougar. Bizarrely, the S-92 won, despite the fact that it had not seen operational service, while the Cougar was already in use, and was based on the tried and trusted Puma. This development had absolutely nothing to do with promise by Sikorsky to invest €148 million in a production facility in north Dublin, where many constituents of the then Taoiseach, Bertie "El Berto" Ahern, worked. However, this sweet deal fell through when Eurocopter, rather unsportingly, took the state to the European Court over the decision.

So the Air Corps soldiered on, sans medium lift helicopters, and its fleet of Dauphins eventually faded from service, leaving only the Alouette IIIs on the front line. Yes Alouette's, the helicopter in service before my Dad reached the production stage.

And then, Baldonnel was blessed with the promise of new helicopters. "Brilliant", said the airborne brass in blue, "we'll have some of those Blackhawks the Yanks are always raving about." Alas, the government felt otherwise. After all, if we were to buy Blackhawks, which have a scary name, and are used by such evil imperialist regimes as the US, Israel and Austria (Austrian bastards, going around like they own the place!), then we would upset Ireland's lunatic fringe of sandal-wearing, bike-loving hippies.

Instead, the boys and girls in Baldonnel got the Agusta AW139, a well-known military vehicle of mythical might, used by such powerhouses as the Ambulance Service of New South Wales and the Estonian Border Guard. Still they have nice leather seats, which will mean the Army Ranger Wing can transit to hostage rescue missions in comfort. As can any Ministers who need to use the helicopters for, I don't know, flying to their constituency to open a pub.

I'm just dying to see how our procurement process works in the purchase of new ships for the Navy. Smart money says that the Navy ends up with superyacht equipped with tennis courts and swimming pools ... you know, so the government can use it for a bit of a relaxing break when the Navy isn't deploying the "SUPERYACHT!" (for that will be its official name, "SUPERYACHT!" ) on drug-busting patrols.

The British Are Coming! The British Are Coming...

...with a lower corporation tax rate for Northern Ireland. That loud banging you can hear is the last nail being hammered into the coffin of the Republic's economy. Currently, the North has the same rate as the rest of the UK, i.e. 28%, versus the Republic's 12.5%. I think it's safe to assume that the Stormont administration will push for a rate as close to the Republic's as possible, and London will give it to them, as hopefully it will get private sector business in Northern Ireland moving and reduce the almighty strain the 6 counties place on the national purse.

So then, let's see, we will have two economies competing with one another, with comparable corporation tax rates, one with a minimum wage of £5.80 per hour , the other with a minimum wage of €8.65 per hour (£7.20). Plus, energy is cheaper in the North.

Hm, I wonder who will win?

Shades of Grey

A real problem in Irish (and indeed European) commentary on the Israel-Palestine conflict is that we exist in a world where things are black and white. There is only good and evil, nice things and bad things. We are cocooned from anything nasty and brutish, and so snuggled are we by the welfare state that we do not understand that much of mankind faces the distinct possibility that life will be cut short.

In some ways, this gulf between us and the truly harsh realities of life allow us, the Irish, to be remarkably generous and sympathetic to those in need, or those who are in a weaker position than we are. The most obvious, and clichéd, examples would be the growth of the charity sector in Ireland, particularly with those charities who work in the Developing World; or how Ireland was one of only 3 EU states to open its doors wide to immigrants from the states of Eastern Europe on their accession in 2005. These issues were relatively black and white: starving Darfurians clearly deserve help, and poor immigrants looking for jobs in wealthier nations obviously struck a chord with the Irish.

But our ability to engage with issues on the international stage is degraded when rights and wrongs are less than clear. Witness the vitriol aimed at Israel over this last week; justified, in so far as storming the ship in question was clearly wrong. Yet while many Irish commentators have much to say on the wrongs of Israel's blockade, and the wrongs of Operation Cast Lead last December, they seem to feel that Hamas firing rockets into Israel, or the threats continuously emanting from Tehran, are not worthy of comment.

Clearly, much of what Israel has done recently is wrong, whether judged from a moral, political or security standpoint, but it can only be prevented from committing these wrongs by improving that state's security situation, something that can only be achieved once the rockets stop falling.

Irish desires to castigate the Israelis do nothing for the greater good of the Middle East; it is purely an exercise in judging the region by the standards we expect of Western Europe, where terrorism is rare, and air raids or rocket attacks rarer still.

It is reminiscent of the disgust and distance with which southerners viewed the Troubles in the North; yes, the violence was appalling, but could our moralising, safe in the 26 counties, really do anything to bring peace between Nationalists and Unionists? Did we not recognise that, if circumstances were a little different, we as individuals could be capable of the hatred and violence we witnessed north of the border?

Until all parties were brought to the table, free from recriminations and arguments about, literally, who started it, nothing was achieved in the North. And if we expect that peace in the Middle East can be achieved by putting pressure on Israel alone, it would appear we have already forgotten the lessons of our own recent history.

That's Right Israel - Both Tanks!

One of the tabloids summed it up best in its headline "You Mossad Be Joking, Biffo." Our Dear Leader, Brian Cowen, known to the faithful and not-so-faithful as "Biffo" (Big Intereseting Fine Fellow from Offally... or maybe the IFF stands for something different?) has decided that enough is enough: if Israel harms Irish citizens on the MV Rachel Corrie, an Irish-owned vessel that is about to breach the Gaza blockade, there will be "serious consequences."

I love my country, and greatly respect our Defence Forces, but "serious consequences" are not really something we specialise in; military might has never been a major priority of the Irish. Even if we compare our naval forces (those of an island nation in the Atlantic) with Israel (not exactly famed for its naval prowess, whatever about its army and air force) we don't exactly meet the mark. Just as an example - number of Israeli submarines: 3, number of Irish submarines: 0.

The question remains, then, as to whether Biffo... I mean the Taoiseach, meant economic sanctions when he spoke darkly of Israel's fate should it dare to oppose our Celtic might. Again, I would expect that the Israelis would probably be more concerned about threats from the EU generally, rather than Ireland in particular, despite the multiple, incredibly valuable, well-known and much vaunted Irelandio - Israelianio trade agreements.

Unless, given the fact that the Irish economy is still tanking, Fianna Fail and our Taoiseach are casting around, desperately, for someone to focus the public's attention on, in case Seoisamh Public notices again that our country is falling apart. You have to hand it to the Israelis - whenever you need a scapegoat, they're right on hand!

Operation Over-Reaction

Psst...Israel. Let me tell you a little secret. You're not going anywhere. Yes, it's true the 250 million Arabs want to drive you into the sea. It's true that latte-sipping Europeans in their ivory towers can comment on how "fascist" and "genocidal" your nation is, with no hint of irony or guilt for what their grandparents may have done to your grandparents. Yes its true that Iran will probably host another of its remarkably disgusting academic conferences to argue that the holocaust never took place. But guess what? None of that matters; you've won. You've won every battle and in every test that mattered, and if you are ever really threatened once more, well, you'll win again.

That's why heavy-handed actions like shooting 10(or 16, or 19, the number is unconfirmed as of yet) passengers on board a ship in a blockade-running flotilla destined for Gaza is such a bad idea (reported here in the London Times). Even if the ships were carrying arms, even if they were going to re-supply Hamas, using such brute force simply undermines the strongest argument for a strong Israel: that Israel is a decent democracy that respects human rights, but has the bad luck of having a remarkably precarious geo-strategic position. That you have a right to be powerful as a nation, but you will use that power wisely and sparingly.

Israel, when you shoot people, even activists who are trying to beat or stab your soldiers, you inevitably use disproportionate force; not because you mean to, but simply due to the fact that you are better armed than the opposition. And the sad fact is (and I recognise how easy it is for me to say this, as I safely sit, unfit and overfed at a keyboard) that democracies have to respond to violence and threats with calm and a desire to limit the use of force to an absolute minimum. That is the burden of being a democracy; we have higher standards than our opponents. We truly are the good guys.

When you fail to do this, Israel, you merely undermine your own security position; you give those self-righteous Europeans a feeling of contentment inside, you make the Islamic fundamentalist feel they have some justification for their irrational hatred of you, you give those aimless youths across the Western world a new target for their protests against life in general.

Ultimately, you could have let these ships pass, and I suspect the negative consequences would have been far less than storming them. And, secretly, you know full well that extremists and anti-Semites can threaten all they want. Those who hate you and live in Gaza or the West Bank cannot destroy you; and those who live further afield and who may have the capacity to destroy you, cannot face the heavy retribution you will rain down on their heads (as the Times also reported today).

Israel, I and many others in this world see ourselves as your friends; and we consequently expect high standards from you. For your own sake, please live up to them

Micheal Martin Wan Sui!

Driving to work this morning, I was treated to the syrupy tones of Micheal Martin (the Irish Foreign Minister for anyone living abroad) on the radio, live from Shanghai, where he is, eh, "leading" a trade mission .

Apart from pulling the usual government stunt of contradicting the Financial Regulator, Matthew Elderfield, by saying that (yes of course!) the state would bail-out struggling mortgage holders, despite the moral hazard this would cause; the man from Cork also noted that we in Ireland will have to introduce Chinese (Mandarin, I presume) into our schools, if we hope to compete in the 21st century.

As one of the growing number of Irishmen and women who have made a somewhat half-assed attempt at learning Mandarin, I can (and this is rare for me) agree whole-heartedly with the Fianna Fail Minister. No, of course China will not take the place of the US as the main focus of our efforts to attract investment, but given the amount of ready foreign currency China has floating around in its coffers, we would be foolish not to at least try to give some of this money a home in Ireland.

A poster on Politics.ie (Seenitallb4, I believe) has hit the nail on the head, by noting that introducing Chinese in Irish schools would immediately put us on the radar of the Chinese government, who would, no doubt, view this as evidence of their growing soft-power.

Apart from the language benefits, learning a language which is so different to English should also broaden the horizons of our future students, who will realise that there is more to "abroad" than the usual choice of Boston or Berlin (or indeed, Birmingham).

Of course, the joke will be on the Chinese when, in 20 years time, their industrial facilities here in Ireland are hiring Irish school leavers whose Mandarin is just as poor as the French and German that their parents and grandparents allegedly spent 6 years learning in school during the eighties and nineties. Because after all, it is one thing to offer a language on the school syllabus, it is another for the students to actually study it effectively.

Politics.ie discussion here.