There Are No Heroes in this Crisis - Only Victims and Villains

The last 24 hours were eventful, to say the least. Yesterday, we began with comedy, when a protestor blocked the gates of Leinster House with a massive concrete lorry painted with anti-Anglo slogans, in a futile gesture of rage against the banking bail-out.  The period ended in tragedy this morning with the Government finally beginning the process of actually facing up to how much trouble the country is in, effectively nationalising Allied Irish Bank, and announcing that our Budget in December will not only cover 2011, but will set out how frugality will reign in Ireland for the next 4 years.

Last night, David McWilliams (Hail to the Mighty Ginger One!) claimed on Vinnie Browne's show on TV3 that the truck driver in question will be hailed as a hero by some - a trend that Fionnan Sheehan claimed would be irresponsible and dangerous, given that a member of the Gardai or the general public could have been seriously injured in the stunt. While I would have some sympathy for McWilliam's dismissal of Sheehan's "po-faced" complaints, the Indo journalist did hit on a simple fact here - no matter how much the general public might sympathise with the "Man in the Cement Lorry ", none of those who are truly responsible for this mess would suffer from this protest, novel and eye-catching though it was. A Garda may have been injured, or a Dail steward hurt, the traffic in Dublin may have been snarled for a short period, but would Cowen, Lenny and co. suffer? Not one jot. The "Man in the Cement Lorry" has already, after his time in a Garda cell last night, spent as much time in custody as Sean Fitzpatrick, and much more time than PJ Sheehan, who richly deserved the hospitality of the Boys and Girls in Blue for his drunken threats. There is no justice to be had in this "Republic".

Our ruling class are safe and snug, insulated from life in the real world. As evidence for this claim, I offer the following video:



For God's sake, even in the face of sex toys, these buffoons waffle away! They spin and spin and spin, until they have completely forgotten where the truth lies. Fibs are only useful if the teller can keep hold, in the back of their mind, of what the truth actually is. Otherwise, instead of allowing the lie to buy them the time or space to figure out how the country can get out of this mess, the fibber becomes obsessed with the falsehood, and substitute reality with their handmade fantasy. Our Government, indeed all of our politicians, have fallen in love with the wonder of their own lies.

It is because of their inability to get used to reality that,  also on Vinnie B last night, Peter Matthews was estimating that we would be on the hook for €65 billion (before we knew AIB would be nationalised). That's why Paul Somerville of Delta Index was saying that if we play dead and don't go to the bond markets for the rest of the year, then the gig will be up, and the world will know we are broke (oh, and what does the Government announce this morning? This PIIGSie won't be going to the market till January). Their fear of actually having to lead and govern is why AIB has been nationalised this morning.

There are no heroes in this country any more - not the Man in the Cement Lorry, not McWilliams, Matthews and Sommerville, not anyone. There are only those who will suffer, to varying degrees, from the path this nation has embarked on,  and those villains who are responsible for laying us so low.

Then Mr. Li Asked His Translator "Who Is This Cowen Guy, Anyway?"

I wrote recently about Brian Cowen's meeting with Li Changchun, the 5th ranking member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Politburo. Sadly, we probably won't be getting obligatory "Lakes of Ponchatrain" mobile ringtones; however, according to His Biffoness, we will be able to avail of major opportunities to increase trade and investment between Ireland and China.

Apparently, Ireland's reputation is "very strong" in what the Press Association insists on terming the "communist state" (remind me again, was it in Ireland or China where the government recently heavily manipulated the financial sector for the "national interest"?). If Ireland is so well known in China, then this represents a major turn around from a short few years ago. I seem to remember numerous people in both Beijing and Guangzhou asking me "Ireland - isn't that in England?".

However, let's give the Government the benefit of the doubt, and assume that "Ireland Inc." truly is impanted firmly in the mind of the Chinese consumer. What do we plan to sell to them?

"(Cowen) told visiting officials that Ireland's relationship with China is at the heart of the country's new strategy for trade, tourism and investment.

And he used the meeting to raise the issue of the export of beef to China."

I'm torn on the latter point - we are, after all, still a nation famed for our agriculture, and it is no accident that some of the largest Irish multinationals are in the food sector. However, it is worrying that Cowen seems to think Sino-Irish trade should hinge on beef - by which I fear he means the raw primary product, as opposed to any processed goods. From the little I know of agricultural economics, it seems that when a rich country buys raw materials/food stuffs off a poor country, in the long run the poor country loses, becoming increasingly dependent on the whims of the rich nation's consumers and the political demands of the rich nation's own food producers (witness realtionship between farmers in developing nations and the EU, for example). The simple fact is that China is the rich country and Ireland is the poor country. And not simply in gross terms - there is 875,000 multimillionaires in China. In effect, the PRC represents a First World nation with a population of around 300 million (albeit they are living cheek-by-jowl with a developing nation of a billion). Beijing holds a lot of the economic cards in its relationship with us (and, to be fair, with everyone else) so we are going to have to box clever.

As for China being at the "heart of (our) new strategy for trade, tourism and investment"; would anyone in Government mind articulating what, exactly, that strategy is? And how we are going to carry it out when Enterprise Ireland has only got offices in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, and the IDA have only got an office in Beijing?

And Brian, for God's sake, the Chinese are sitting on US$3 trillion in foreign currency reserves - ever think of asking Mr. Li are there any Chinese companies that would like to use Ireland as their EU hub? As I've written before, Ireland needs to be positioning itself as China's gateway to Europe, helping Beijing navigate through the complex regulatory and economic environment within the EU, and carving out a niche as China's friend within the Community.

But, no Brian - you just ask them if they want any Mullingar heifers.

Magnificent Micronations: Part III - Forvik

What sort of man would unilaterally declare the small island of Forvik in the Shetlands, far to the north of Scotland,  independent of the United Kingdom, demand British Crown Dependency for his new domain, and then begin trying to create a micro-treasury by inviting oil and gas companies to explore his miniscule territorial waters? A man who comes from Cunningsburgh, that's who (cue Blackadder jokes now)!

In 2008, Stuart Hill, a Shetland resident, declared Forvik independent on the basis that in 1469 the island was pawned by Christian I of Denmark/Norway to King James III of Scotland, as collateral for a loan to help pay Christian's daughter's dowry. As the loan was never repaid (according to Hill) Forvik remains in constitutional limbo - British, but not in the United Kingdom, similar in status to the Isle of Man or the Channel Islands.

Pretty crazy, eh? Oh, but I haven't told you how Hill, an Englishman, came to be in the Shetlands in the first place...

He was shipwrecked.

While trying to circumnavigate Britain in his converted row-boat "Maximum Exposure".

Earning himself the nickname "Captain Calamity".

Having decided that, possibly, a life on the ocean wave was not for him, Hill settled on the Shetlands. In 2008, Hill claims, he was gifted the island by Shetland native Marc King (who possibly told Hill it was an "unsinkable row-boat"). However, King denies this, claiming he actually agreed to sell the island to Hill, who never paid, meaning King is rightful owner and sovereign of Forvik. That said, I suspect the weight of legal argument is with Hill, who possesses a document granting him the island, signed by King with that most august of imprimaturs - a smiley face.

Having sailed from a far away land to lay claim to his rightful domain, Hill now understandably seeks to make good on his hard work. There is the ubiquitous "buy citizenship in a micronation" offer, now with a recession-busting 90% discount - tell your friends! More intriguing is Hill's efforts to get “interested parties able to enter into serious negotiations” to invest in building an oil rig off Forvik.

As Hill notes "the piece of seabed that I am claiming is certainly large enough to put an oil rig on"; sadly not mentioning whether there is actually any oil under the seabed. That said, this guy survived a shipwreck, managed to have someone gift him an island, and is now thumbing his nose at the UK government. You just know he is going to luck-out! Buy your citizenship now at this low, low price!

Magnificent Micronations: Part II - Seborga

Some micronations stride onto the world stage, squeaking mightily "BEHOLD MY GLORY!". Others, however, slip into existence, allowed to continue only because history missed them during spring-cleaning. Such a nation is Seborga,  located in North-West Italy.

Seborga - from the Seborga Homepage

Sold to the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia in 1729, who then allegedly forgot to legally register the purchase, Seborga was left out of the agreements ratified by the 1815 Congress of Vienna, and hence, in the eyes of the Seborgans at least, left in a constitutional loop-hole, thereby allowing the statelet to still claim to be distinct from its larger, overly-gesticulating neighbour, Italy.

However, while its claim to independence might only be through the oversight of 19th Century moustachioed diplomats, Seborga achieved its freedom in a most flamboyant fashion: a revolution in 1963 led by the head of the local flower-growers cooperative, Giorgio Carbone. That's right, a rebellious, left-leaning rose farmer.

Like all good socialists, once victorious and voted into power by the people of Seborga, Giorgio immediately declared himself Giorgio I, Prince of Seborga. To be fair, he did put his leadership to the people again a short 28 years later, and was voted in through a referendum - winning 304 to 4. Those 4 people must really hate flower-growers.

Best of all, Giorgio's title until his death in 2009 was "Sua Tremendita" or "Your Tremendousness". Me, I would have gone for "Your Most Bodaciousness".

Seborga's new ruler is now Prince Mengatto I, who won a close fought election against his rival Pepi Morgia, by 89 votes to 67. Worryingly, only 156 of the 220 eligible voters turned out, suggesting that the Seborgan electorate is rapidly growing disillusioned with modern politics, or that the joke has got a bit boring by now.

Prince Mengatto I: Most Awesome Medal, Dude!

Seborga's relationship with Italy actually seems to be rather good (I suppose compared to the actual shadow state run by organised crime in places like Sicily, the Italians are probably not too worried about the late Giorgio's regime, no matter how tremendous).  Seborga's currency is exchangable with the Euro, and the Seborgans have been allowed to establish a Seborgan Consulate in Cuneo, Piemonte.

As the Daily Telegraph noted in a report on the statelet, relations are not entirely harmonious:

However, the residents do pay taxes to Italy, and vote in Italy's general and regional elections. Sceptical Italians have accused Seborga's independence of being a ruse to attract tourists.

 I find such besmirching of His Tremendousness highly upsetting.

Biffo Asks for Some Tips from the Chinese

His Tremendousness Brian Cowen will be meeting with a senior Chinese politician today, Li Changchun,  the 5th ranked member of the  Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China.  Mr Li is, according to Forbes, China's propaganda chief. Now, given what I have said before about Ireland's need to court Chinese investment, I am pleased that Mr. Cowen at least recognises that the fifth most powerful man in China is about a billion times more powerful than the mightiest man in Ireland, and that we should, in effect, kiss-up to the PRC.

However, is it possible that Mr. Cowen recognises that Mr. Li offers more than mere investment opportunities? This was the man, after all, who in 2009 organised (along with China Mobile) for every mobile phone in China to have patriotic songs as ring tones in honour of the 60th birthday of the PRC. If your phone starts playing "Lakes of Ponchatrain", you know why.

Now, Even Jay Leno Mocks Us.

With thanks to Nanda Devi on The Property Pin.

EDIT: Being discussed on Joe Duffy now - I expect the day to end with a fatwah being issued on Jay. "You know yourself Joe, sure it's just not on!".

No Comment Monday

I'd love to comment on this case, but frankly, I'm bloody terrified of the risk.

Which tells you a lot about the kind of "Republic" we live in, doesn't it?

He's Chariman of the Zig and Zag Cumann, you know.

Just on the way into work there, and I was listening to Today FM's Ray D'arcy giving out about Fine Gael removing the pairing arrangement it has with the Government for this week, preventing the Tanaiste, and general wunderkind, Mary Coughlan from visiting the US with Enterprise Ireland. Essentially, the pairing arrangement means that if the opposition know in advance that a government deputy will be absent from the Dail  (perhaps for illness or official business) then the opposition will remove one of its deputies from the vote on a motion, rather sportingly ensuring the government does not suffer from having reduced numbers.

Such gentlemanly procedures were perhaps better suited to happier times; you know, when Ireland wasn't circling the bowl. But in today's world, the pairing system smacks of a silly rule that the insiders have developed which gets in the way of actually representing the people. I must applaud FG for having the cojones to stick it to the government like this (and yes, yes, I am a Blueshirt!). But even objectively, I think this is a good move.

So I am perplexed as to why so many Irish people seem to view any demand that the Government actually govern as being beyond the pale, as best illustrated by Mr. D'Arcy today. How incredible - the opposition won't cover for the second-in-command of the Irish government jetting off to New York St. Louis, Chicago and Boston, during the Dail's first week back in work (after 12 weeks holiday! What, Mary, was New York shut for the summer?). How dare those dirty Blueshirts expect that the Government should now get down to the actual work of trying to save the country - sure isn't that why Mary is going to New York, to wow the Yanks with her talk of the knowledge economy and green jobs? As Ray himself said, shouldn't the whole Dail be banding together to get the country out of this mess, maybe by creating some form of, as Ray put it, "All-Star team", with the best from each party working hand in hand to clean up the unfortunate and highly unexpected recession we are now in. With a Fianna Failer as Taoiseach, I bet, Ray? Maybe that nice Brian Lenihan!

We should never forget just how much faith so many of the main figures in our society have invested in the current administration - so many of our media commentators, so many socialites, so many big business figures, so many overpaid quangocrats. They are terrified that when Fianna Fail get the boot that we might actually get good governance, and the FF myth of the party of leadership will be exposed as the fraud it is. Sure, good governance -  Jesus, that's not very Irish, now is it?

Magnificent Micro-nations: Part 1- The Hutt River Province

I love oddities; those little accidents of history, those quirks of fate, those FUBARs of constitutional law which lead to the bizarre and the ridiculous. That's why I find micronations hilariously appealing.

After all, how do you want to "stick it to the Man"? Sitting in your room with the curtains drawn, sullenly looking at your poster of Che Guevara while listening to Rage Against the Machine or the Manic Street Preachers? Or would you like to declare independence, cecede from the imperialist oppression of a recognised state, and lead your homeland (or in many case, just your house) to freedom, before going mad with power, losing sight of the revolutionary ideals you once held dear, and declaring yourself a monarch?

Oooh, the latter please!

In what will hoepfully becoming a whirlwind tour of the mini-states of the world, we shall begin with the Hutt River Province, a nation which heroically won its freedom from that most repressive of nations: Australia.

Fascist bastard!

In 1969, tired of being ground under the heel of the repressive Canberra regime, and suffering from the Aussie's stringent wheat quota, farmer Leonard Casley declared his farm independent. That might sound kind of pathetic, but remember this is an Australian farm, so it's 75 square kilometres - so its nearly half the size of Liechtenstein, and it dwarfs the Vatican.  And hey, they're independent, so why not Hutt River?

Hutt River's Mighty Territories (Image from Wikipedia)

So much, so crazy, and Australia obviously refused to recognise what the Feds no doubt assumed was simply a lunatic. The suits began legal proceedings, and all would have no doubt have ended in a heavy fine and a wordy judgment from an Australian court, had the Governor-General's office not referred to Mr. Casley as  "Administrator of the Hutt River Province" - which, under the terms of the Royal Perogative (the G-G represents the British monarch, don't forget), meant Mr. Casley now represented the official administration governing Hutt River.

Mr. Casley promptly did what we all would, and declared himself His Royal Highness Prince Leonard of Hutt, which had the dual benefit of being both ridiculously grand, and, under the terms of Commonwealth law, prevents him being prosecuted in Australian courts. So bye-bye Australian Tax Office.

Australia did what any repressive regime would do, and cut off HRH's post, which meant that King Leonard's copy of "Monarchs Monthly" had to be passed through the Canadian Postal Service (obviously, the New Zealanders were under diplomatic pressure not to provide this service).

Since then, the Hutt River Province has ticked along quite merrily, forming its own Diplomatic Intelligence Service, seeking foreign business opportunities in Dubai, and generally gettin up the nose of the Aussies.

You have to admire the brass neck of this micronation (hey, the country has a Prince Wayne!)

The only disappointment is that I was certain that the Hutt River Province would be ruled by this guy:

Send the Aussies to the Sarlacc!

Oh, Burn! The Guardian's Steve Bell Takes Aim at Brian Cowen

Of course, now that the Brits are mocking him, I think Cowen's great!

How You Get to Taiwanese Style Approval Ratings ...and How You Recover

You'll remember that in an earlier post I discussed our Glorious Leader, Brian Cowen, putting the economic crisis on hold for a little while and travelling to Mayo in order to open a vitally important GP clinic. You will also remember that I was totally in favour of this, as the Taoiseach is required by law to support small businesses (which is what a GP clinic is, after all) that are subsidised by taxpayer-backed payment schemes (hellooo medical cards!), even if it is to the detriment of minor things like the 435,000 unemployed or the continuing collapse of our economy.

Thankfully, while Brian was in Mayo it wasn't all work, as he did have time to relax in the exclusive Mount Falcon resort (under the consitution, the Taoiseach and Ministers can only stay in accommodation to which the word "exclusive" is attached) and while there, according to Broadsheet.ie:

He started drinking at 4.30pm in Keane’s with Dara Calleary, Fianna Fail junior minister, and went on to a private room in the hotel with some “cronies”. Before retiring at 5am ... Two members of staff had to “link him with both arms to lift him up the stairs to his room”.

Clearly, the Mighty Biff's plan to manfully challenge the recession to a drinking contest is working, as Ireland is now on the frontpage of the Wall Street Journal, the poster child of good economic management...
 

Eh, sorry, no, that's actually a negative story, isn't it?

Unsurprisingly, yesterday's poll by Millward Browne Lansdowne for TV3 showed that, despite Brian's heroic carousing, the public are distinctly unimpressed with his record, with only 11% of respondents satisfied with the government, and only 18% approving of the Taoiseach.

However, Brian need not despair. Such poll ratings are, for me, reminiscent of the sort of approval that former Taiwanese President Chen Shui Bian received in both his first and second term in office. The lesson from another small island nation is clear, Mr. Cowen. All you need to do to rebound from this position of weakness, and for Fianna Fail to win the next election is to...

Be the target of a staged attempted assasination (althought I must point out that the allegation that attack was a mock-up was never proven).

And all you need to do is douse yourself in ketchup for the afternoon, while someone (who witnesses can claim looks a lot like Morgan Kelly) fires blank cartridges at you from a toy gun. Such a bold move, Mr. Cowen, such a tough decision, as to stage a pretend attempt on your own life will see you rise in the polls, crusining to victory, safe in the knowledge that you can piss everyone off again in your second term in office.

Plus, as a bonus, our Dail debates might start to look more like this:

FF, Your Ego Is Writing Cheques the Economy Can't Cash!

"Good news" today on the job front - you will remember that SR Technics shut last year, leaving over one thousand out of work, and a number of apprentices with unfinished qualifications. Well, the Government, in its eternal wisdom and continuing desire to somehow create the illusion of given a rat's-ass about the unemployed, has announced that the Air Corps will be taking on 30 apprentices to finish their training with the Defence Forces.

That's a relief for the young men and women who will now be able to gain their qualification, and given the very tough year the former SRT employees have had, they deserve some respite. But it also represents further muddle-headed thinking from the Government, and either a lack of understanding or lack of interest as to how you actually create jobs. By taking these apprentices on with the military, at the tax-payers expense, we are merely substituting wealth-creating private sector jobs with a further drain on the over-burdened exchequer. Will these apprentices have to serve with the Air Corps when they have completed their training? If so, then was there an open competition for the apprenticeships, or were the spots gifted to former SR Technic's employees to save face for the Government? If the new apprentices do not have to serve with the Air Corps, then where is the benefit for our military air wing in providing this training?

If only there was somewhere else for these apprentices to complete their course - it's a real pity Ireland doesn't have one of the world's largest airlines headquartered in Dublin! I'm sure if that was the case, the Government would have bent over backwards trying to support such an airline, helping it establish the facilities it needed, and creating a healthy business environment. Then that airline might be able to provide jobs for those in the aviation sector who find themselves unemployed.

No, it's better to just squander Ireland's tiny military budget on trying to patch over the holes in the Government's employment policies, by providing training for apprentices without the promise of a job at the end.

That's much better.

Chastised by Seamy

One of the fascinating things about starting a blog is that, very occasionally, you find someone elsewhere on the web discussing something you've written. Such an event is even more intriguing when the cyberspace commentary on your words is provided by someone with very different political opinions to your own.
Such was the case yesterday when I noted that I had received traffic from the irishrepublican.net site, where my post on the Monaghan Soviet  was being discussed (and many thanks to the poster tireoghan for linking to this blog). One of the posters on the site, Seamy (which, my American friends please note, is pronounced "Shamey", not "Seemy") noted that my initial posting on Monaghan's revolutionary past had been somewhat incomplete, in that I suggested the Irish today were not prepared to engage in real political change, without providing any reasons as to why this inertia has developed. As Seamy put it himself:

So that fella's central arguement is that out of the blue, Irish people have become lazy, sluggish and politically disengaged without offering any credible explanations why. Does he fail also to grasp the basic concepts of dialectics which states that motion is never fixed and is always changing, the same can be applied to human nature and political attitudes. Yes, during the good ol' years of neoliberalism people were politically disengaged as naturally there is no real need to be when you have a more or less stable economic situation. However the financial crisis, the bank bailouts and now the frantic budget slashing all over Europe is waking people up to the realities of life under capitalism and drawing more and more previously apolitical workers and youth towards potentially revolutionary politics

In answer to Seamy's question, yes, I fail to grasp dialectics, mainly because I have no idea what the hell they are. Seamy is, unsportingly, using the unfair advantages often deployed by the left when I begin arguing with them: intelligence and big words. However, even my sluggish capitalist mind can, I believe, discern that Seamy is pointing out that the Irish may have become so addled with the comforts of the boom years that they are now incapable of revolution, reform or any other exciting r-words. I think that there is certainly some truth in this, although I would tend to argue (as did tireoghan) that this is due to a large section of our society still having a stake in the lies and falsehoods peddled by Fianna Fail. This is not just the big property developers either, but extends right through the citizenry of our "republic" - after all, the professional landlord/doctor/garda/teacher/shopkeeper with a few buy-to-lets are all just as fearful as Johnny Ronan of property trading at a realistic value. They too hope that we have "turned a corner" and that our Lazarus like recovery has begun.

I would also humbly point out to Seamy that to suggest that periods of plenty tend to dampen the ardour of the revolutionary spirit should result in the corollary that periods of want create the conditions for rebellion against the status quo. Yet the period of greatest need in the modern history of  Ireland, the Great Famine, resulted in only a tiny insurrection limited to one village in 1848, which can't compare to the events elsewhere in Europe over the course of that year.

By comparison, the rebellions of 1798 and 1916 occured in circumstances far less economically pressing than those of the Great Famine, yet something lit the touch paper of national consciousness, and the we rose up. In essence, it will take more than mere economic difficulties to get the Irish to seek change now - too many of us have a stake in the current system of government, and we do not seem to understand that the current FF government is ruling in the same manner as their British predecessors. The hunger for change is driven by emotion and a sense of justice as much as cold economics.

Seamy, if you (or any of your colleagues at Irish Republican) read this, I would be interested in hearing your thoughts.

Best Foreign Relations Video Ever

Taiwan's Next Media explains the current tensions between China and Japan using a cartoon Ninja and a Panda. This is how they teach international relations at Harvard, you know:

Princely, Enda Ain't!

There was a certain irony this morning to the fact that we had the philosopher Paul Brady on RTE 1 discussing the merits of Machiavelli's "The Prince" as a guide to the modern politician, while on Newstalk we had Charlie Flanagan, Fine Gael TD and spokesperson on Children's Issues, defending Enda Kenny's handling of the recently revealed scandal involving PJ Sheehan, another FG TD. On the one channel we had someone discussing the handbook for the politically ruthless, while on the other, we had waffle and spin designed to defend a decision which seems to define spineless weakness.

For those of you who don't know, and who couldn't be bothered clicking on the link, Mr. Sheehan was stopped by the Gardai leaving the Dail one night last July. He was, in the words of the attached article, '"extremely intoxicated" at the time, to the point that he required assistance to "remain upright"'. However, he insisted on being allowed to drive, and when the Garda in question tried to prevent him, she was told that her career was under threat and that "You'll get nothing from us when we're in power".

Leaving aside the delightful fact that Ireland has now been engulfed by two shameful political episodes in the space of less than a week, both involving alcohol, and from opposite sides of the house, what really stinks here is the complete absence of leadership FG are showing on the issue. Enda Kenny could not ask for a better opportunity to show off his political cojones! A 77-year old TD, who would probably not run in the next election, and who is only the Deputy Spokesperson on Agricultural Affairs is revealed to be undone by the demon drink, and in the process insults and threatens a servant of the state. Straight forward decision, Enda, red card him, announce that you when you are in power no one will be able to abuse their position for personal gain, and state categorically that those who work in the service of their fellow citizens deserve the respect of all. You come across as a great leader, statesmenlike and just, while simultaneously focussing attention on the Government and their refusal to can a Taoiseach who was, ahem, "hoarse" on the job. At worst, you annoy a few hardcore Blueshirts down in Cork South West who believe that it is every man's right to drive while drunk, and sure isn't that what Collins was fightin' for?

Instead, we again have the absolute absence of bravery in the Irish political arena. Kenny (who apparently only learned all the facts yesterday, even though the event happened in July, and Kenny was present at the time, and told the guard to ignore Sheehan!) has decided to deprive the good PJ of the mantle of Deputy Spokesperson on Agri- yadda yadda. So the bould PJ keeps his TD salary, keeps his expenses, keeps his perks, but merely has to stop pretending he cares about farmers nationwide, and can instead go on to only focus on the farmers of Cork South West. Magnificent.

We are always being told by the politicians how tough and underhand the party political environment is: how cut-throat can it be if even threatening a police officer won't lead to you getting the chop? Mr. Kenny, might I suggest you buy this book, and learn how this whole "leadership" thing is actually done.

An Irish Member of "the Few"

As yesterday was "Battle of Britain" day, and given my nerdish passion for aviation, I thought this would be a good opportunity to draw your attention to a somewhat forgotten member of that most noble of groups, "the Few", as the RAF pilots who won the Battle of Britain have become known.

Brendan Finucane (nicknamed "Paddy" by his colleagues - hey, in the 40's even the good guys were racist!) was born in Rathmines in Dublin in 1920. Given his father had been an active Republican during the 1916 Rising, his family would have been less than sympathetic to Britain. However, following emigration to England in 1936, and the development of a passion for flight, Finucane joined the Royal Air Force in 1938 (I would love to know what his father thought!).  

Finucane couldn't have known what lay just round the corner; after all, it was only in 1938 that the RAF was transforming from a "Gentleman's Flying Club" back into a truly operational airforce (indeed, on the BBC last night they interviewed a veteran who had only flown eight hours over the course of 1938. Eight hours! That really puts Britain's post WWI defence policy in perspective). Yet the young Irishman (only 19 when he first flew into combat) soon found himself fighting for the survival of European democracy. A meteoric rise saw him promoted to Wing Commander, and even claim the iconic German ace Adolf Galland as one of his victories - Galland, who was by all accounts an honourable man, thankfully survived.

However, the life of a pilot in the Second World War could be fleeting indeed, and sadly proved so in the case of Finucane. From acesofww2.com:

After attacking German shipping at Ostend and strafing three German airfields on July 15th, 1942, Finucane’s wing regrouped to return to Hornchurch. As the group passed low-level over the beach at Pointe Du Touquet, Finucane’s Spitfire was hit by machine gun fire that severely damaged his radiator. The engine overheated and quit, and the Spitfire was too low to allow Finucane to bail out. Losing altitude swiftly, Paddy was heard to say; “This is it, Chaps.” Witnesses reported that after a near perfect "splash" the Shamrock-Spit sank like a stone, and despite all efforts, was never to be seen again. At the time of his death, Wing Commander Finucane’s score stood at an amazing 32 victories.

The fact that Ireland's WW2 veterans and heroes have been forgotten is a shame that blights the island, and it is a fault seen in equal measure North and South of the border. In the South, we seemed inclined to ignore these men and women simply because most of them fought in British uniform, while in the North, rememberance of the Second World War has been sidelined by the mythology and fable of the Somme and Ulster's role in the trenches of the Great War.

It is, I feel, high time that Ireland, North and South, remember those men and women who fought not for the Queen, nor the Republic, nor Ireland, nor Britain, but for the simple rights of all peoples to live free from fasicist tyranny. The Battle of Britain was not simply a battle for Britain: it was a fight for the survival of the Europe we now take for granted, and for those ideals that have been Europe's greatest gifts to the world. That Ireland, or at least Irishmen and women, played some part in it should be a source of quiet pride.

Biffo in Pictures - A Historical Record

No need for words - let the magic of the photographic image speak.

And So It Begins.

Short post today, as I believe that quite soon Ireland will have no access to the Internet anyway. So what's the point? The flame of our independence is now flickering, sputtering in the darkness of our own incompetence and inability. Are we concerned? Apparently not, as the Irish media is primarily concerned with the Pope's visit to the UK, the remaining fallout from Portergate, and with the discovery of Radon in 600 Irish homes.

Meanwhile, the world media is also keeping its beady eye on Ireland, but they seem to have different interest to our local newshounds. They don't give a damn about Biffo anymore, having obviously deduced that he is not worthy of attention, and they care little for what the Pope's visit means for Ireland, or anywhere else for that matter. They do, however, care about the fact that the Government is on the cusp of calling the IMF in, and that our bond spreads have shot to over 6.3%.

If you look at the link above to the Irish 10 year bond price tracker, you will see, in the little graph at the top of the page, an analysis of the performance of Irish bonds over the last year (i.e. how much we are being charged for a loan). Two spikes are prominent - one in May, and one now. The one in May was caused by general concerns plaguing the Eurozone over the likelihood of a Greek default. The spike now, however, is all down to market sentiment regarding Ireland.

Simply put, the markets are as frightened now as they were in the midst of Greece's troubles (and the world can see that Greece is a basket-case) but this time, the terror driving our cost of borrowing is solely caused by the management of the Irish economy and banking sector, or lack thereof. We cannot blame this on foreigners - not the Greeks, not the Germans, not even the Brits.

We are about to see a homegrown crisis of Hellenic proportions.

I'm going to buy a shotgun, a tent, and some canned food over the weekend.

What's the Mandarin for Property Crash?

I grow bored of Portergate, and so my internet browsing has led me further afield, to examine China and the continuing economic miracle that rolls on there in apparent defiance of the global recession. Obviously, given the swamp of debt in which much of the rest of the world is mired, there is much speculation that surely the Chinese economy will soon come crashing down, with many doom laden predictions being aimed at China's sky-rocketing property market.

I was unsure of my own view on this topic, until I read this post on the Wall Street Journal China Real Time Report. True, it is scant in terms of details or figures, and the article does not even suggest that the Chinese property market might crash. However, the following two lines regarding leading developer Ren Zhiqiang have convinced me that China will soon experience a tumble in property prices:

"(Ren) once famously said anyone who couldn’t afford a house in the city should go back to the countryside"

And, after a protestor threw a shoe (I mean really, who throws a shoe?) at Ren during a speech he was giving to a real estate conference, "Ren seemed to embrace the attack. Cracking a smile after the first salvo missed its mark, he went on to insult the shoe-thrower as someone probably frustrated at being too poor to buy a house."

Now, supposedly professional economists (you know, those ones with "degrees", and who have carried out "research") will tell you that you measure the likelihood of property bubbles by looking at multiples of average income, price rises year on year, and over-active lending on the part of banks. You know, numbery sort of things.

Not me. I measure the likelihood of a bubble bursting using the patented "Aitor McDonagh Mean Hubris Quotient". And let me tell you, with Ren's comments, we are going off the scale.

Basically, measuring Ren's comments against our standard measures taken from Ireland, we have long passed the 100 MicroBerties on the smugness scale (equivalent to when Bertie Ahern professed that anyone who doubted Ireland's miracle property market was "Sitting on the sidelines, cribbing and moaning is a lost opportunity. I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide")

With Ren's remarks, China's property market is clearly reaching the GigaSheehy mark, where the level of empty, air-headed hubris is equivalent to when the former head of Allied Irish Bank, Eugene Sheehy said "We'd rather die than raise equity (from the State)". You know, shortly before AIB needed €3.5 billion of taxpayer's money?

Judging by my highly scientific (and don't forget, patented) scale, China is due a bit of a property crash. So surely, the Middle Kingdom will end up as depressed and sullen as Ireland is today? Not quite - let's not forget that many countries have property bubbles, but as in most cases, China did not focus almost exclusively on property to the detriment of all else. That was an Irish speciality. China will continue to tick away, exporting huge quantities to the West, importing luxury goods, and developing their own high-end, quality brands. Some of the Chinese middle classes, and some of the super-rich (like Mr. Ren), will however become too familiar with the words "negative equity".

The Blueshirt Conspiracy and the Death of Leadership

The Fianna Fail response to "Portergate" has been depressingly comic. Let's split that phrase apart: two central themes, depression and comedy. Let's start with the latter.

It is comic for Brian Cowen to suggest that Fine Gael TD Simon Coveney's tweet is "a new low" in Irish politics. Coveney may have been somewhat tactless in sending his thoughts out into the internet ether, when the general public had already begun commenting on Biffo's terrible performance; but was it a new low? Below ceding the State's responsibility for orphan's and mentally-disabled children to the Catholic Church? Below engaging in covert arms smuggling into Northern Ireland, and then pinning the blame on an Army Intelligence officer? Below even stoking the most over-inflated property bubble in, quite possibly, the history of mankind? Below using one's maiden speech in the Dail to demand that the Jews be routed out of the country? No, I don't think so.

It was comic for Dermot Ahern to claim Cowen was only "congested" on Damien Kiberd's Newstalk programme yesterday. It was comic for Mary Hanafin to claim Cowen was only "hoarse" on Prime Time last night. It was comic for Micheal Martin to claim this morning that Coveney's text had cause Ireland to lose serious face before the world. It is comic, in the extreme, for Fianna Fail to try to suggest that the whole incident is some sort of Blueshirt conspiracy to bring poor Brian down. Seriously, lads, you keep telling us the Blueshirts aren't organised enough for government: if they could pull off this sort of coup, they're organised enough to be the bad guys in the Da Vinci code!

Which leads me on to depression - I immediately sink into despondent gloom when I realise that the reason the FF crowd are spinning away merrily on this topic is because they are pathologically incapable of taking responsibility. If Biffo even showed the slightest hint of being prepared to take the blame, of actually putting his hand up and saying "you know what, I was out too late and gave a bad interview. I am sorry" you might actually confuse his refreshing honesty with something approaching leadership ability. But instead, they treat us like we are idiots - yes, Biffo was out till 3.30am, yes he was drinking, but no, when he woke up he wasn't hungover - he had a cold!

The inability to admit mistakes, the refusal to recognise failings, the belief that they can pull the wool over our eyes, these are the characteristics our government displays. And, if today they are trying to pretend it wasn't the Taoiseach's fault that he was hungover, for the last two years they have been spinning that they are not at fault for a rapidly collapsing economy. Even a modicum of leadership, of moral bravery, would go a long way now. Instead, we get this, from Frank Fahy TD ...

The Noblest of Professions

With much gratitude and thanks to "What Goes Up..." over on The Property Pin

Don't Worry, He's Only Drowning Our Sorrows...and Chances

Reports are coming through today on Politics.ie that Brian Cowen was drunk (or possibly hungover) during an interview on Morning Ireland on the national broadcaster, RTE, this morning.

You've read that correctly...Brian Cowen - the Taoiseach, the Head of Government, the hand on the tiller of state as we navigate these stormy waters, was allegedly drunk during a national radio interview today.

Even the normally docile and toothless RTE have reported that he may have been drunk - although they have since changed the headline to "hungover"

In entirely unrelated news, Irish bond spreads have widened since the incident.

I don't see what the big deal is, I mean  Obama regularly appears in public a bit soused, right? Sarkozy is usually a bit tipsy before the cameras, surely? How about Merkel?

What, none of them drink heavily the night before a major radio interview? Has any leader ever been famed for being a little "tired and emotional" while on state business?

Oh, that's right,... Yeltsin.

I'm sure Russia in the 90's is a goal for Ireland to aspire to.

EDIT: Oh jaysus... the BBC have picked up on it now!

FURTHER EDIT: Dermot Ahern, Justice Minister, on Newstalk now claiming Cowen was just congested! "I often find it difficult to understand him on the phone, given his congestion".

Also, note Michael Martin's comments along the lines that "sure everyone has a few drinks", thereby effectively confirming the Taoiseach was half-cut. Methinks the Taoiseach has been set up, and that the sharks are circling.

Now on MSNBC .

And on the WSJ

Meet the New Owners - Part 3: The IMF

They only come out at night - they fear the sun. With their pale, tiny eyes, bloodless pallor and eerily glowing calculators, they strike fear into the hearts of small countries everywhere. Over the centuries they have gone by many names - dragula ... nosferatu ... the accounting dead. Today, however, they have a new name, hideous to behold and only whispered by the good people of Ireland...

The International Monetary Fund!

IMF Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Like its closest relation, the vampyr, the IMF must be invited in by its victim. Having tricked its prey into lowering their defences, the IMF then attacks the softest, weakest part of its work force - the public sector. In an exclusive for this blog, I can secretly reveal the IMF's plan for Ireland should it ever be given access to our economy:

1. Public transport in Dublin will be replaced entirely by donkeys for hire. For commuters outside Dublin, Park and Ass facilities will be provided.
2. The Gardai will be fired, to be replaced entirely by a new force of leather-clad Germans, all called Gunther.
3. All teachers will be shot, to save on costs. The largest, most prematurely mature student in each class will be designated "Educational Operative 1" and will be charged with the teaching of their classmates, using as much violence and petty bullying as possible. Should they fail, "Educational Operative 1" will be shot, and "Educational Operative 2" will be selected, and so on, until the class is dead, thereby providing further savings for the Irish economy.
4. Hospitals will double as abbatoirs. No reason.
5. In an entirely unrelated note, Soylent Green will be the only foodstuff available in Irish shops.
6. 45% of the Irish population will be conscripted for work in the Wateford Crystal mines. That's right, Waterford Crystal comes from mines.
7. The shortest, stockiest, most ginger section of the Irish population will be selected for genetic experiments to produce an actual race of Leprechauns, thereby encouraging more American tourists to visit the country.
8. In an effort to boost the flagging economy around Shannon airport, half the facility will be sold to the US military for troop transport/ rendition flights. However, in an effort to be fair, and in a rare IMF concession to Ireland's politically self-righteous credentials, the other half of the airfield will be sold to Iran, so that they can strike back at the imperialist pig-dogs in the US with their mighty drone! 

The IMF's Overlord for Ireland - Willem Dafoe

The above will be the result of the current path we are on. Fianna Fail's economic plan is to keep kicking the economic ball into touch every few months, hoping that by the time that it is widely recognised that our economy is FUBARed, they will be out of office. By doing so, they are only increasing the likelihood that the IMF will be brought in, or at the very least, the ECB will take over the running of the country. While the IMF may not engage in all (or indeed, any) of the steps outlined above, we can't rule any of them out! More importantly, however, is the shame we should feel that this Republic, which for so long struggled for independence, is now faced with the prospect of becoming an economic colony yet again - not through the greed or hunger of an external power, but rather through our own incompetence in running our economy. Will the Republican Party ensure the end of Irish independence? Man up, Fianna Fail; cut if you need to cut, tax if you need to tax. Don't leave it to foreigners - if you screwed up, take the political implications on the chin. But whatever happens, don't let this Republic, tiny though it may be, fade from the pages of history.

Vader used to be with the IMF - but he couldn't stomach the cruelty

The Strange Nature of Scottish Nationalism

Liechtenstein's few travelling football fans (if they have any) must have been pretty shocked on Tuesday night when the Scottish fans packing out Hampden Park in Glasgow began booing the tiny monarcy's national anthem. What could have gone through the Alpine-dwellers' minds, one wonders: had Scotland fought a bloody war with the miniscule state that history had entirely forgotten? When Scots refer to the "Auld Enemy", are they actually speaking about Liechtenstein?

In fact, the lads from the Lilliputian land were on the wrong end of a misunderstanding. Unfortunately, Liechtenstein's national anthem has the same tune as "God Save the Queen", and once the first strains of a musical piece more readily associated with the actual "Auld Enemy" began to reverberate around Hampden, the inevitable ensued. Although comic, the incident does highlight the strange nature of Scottish nationalism, and how a nation which has played such a vital role in Britain's rise as an imperial power can still have such a pathological hatred of their, in fact, fellow statesmen, if not fellow countrymen.

The apparent contradictions in Scottish nationalism mount the deeper you get - like Ireland, Scotland plays host to a large number of Loyal Orange Lodges, and has close ties with the Unionist community in Northern Ireland. Yet it is also a nation slowly pushing towards independence, led by the Scottish National Party (SNP) under its leader, Alex Salmond. This same Mr. Salmond can demand Scottish independence as the panacea for the ills of his nation, and those of the wider UK, yet can also decry the British government's decision to merge its Scottish regiments, rather than retaining each as an independent entity.

Looking at the mess we here in Ireland have made of our independence, one does wonder whether any small nation can survive, distinct and apart, under the weight of economic pressures and globalised culture today. If the Scot's ever do get to go it alone, it is well worth them remembering that fiscal responsibility (admittedly, a stereotypically Scottish attribute) is key - after all, the Union with England came about following a disastrous investment in a colonial adventure gone bad.

Meet the New Owners - Part 2: The Chinese

The dragon awakens. All under heaven - tian xia. A Communist state with a capitalist economy. To get rich is glorious. Whether a cat is black or white doesn't matter, so long as it catches mice it's a good cat. The future superpower. The Middle Kingdom. The mountains are high and the emperor is far away.

The above are just some of the many tired clichés about China that I will diligently avoid in this post. The simple fact is this: the United States, the richest nation on earth, has given its wallet to China in exchange for the fleeting pleasure of cheaper consumer goods. China now has America's cash - bags of it (estimated between US$1.75 -1.87 trillion in June 2010). And while Rome's will was enforced by the legions, and Britannia's through the might of the Royal Navy, China will buy your compliance.

Both images property of Bank of China

As a strategy, it is superb in its subtlety and simplicity. Despite the massive expansion in its military budget, China has almost exclusively focussed on the defensive, militarily speaking. Even the much feared DF-21 is, in essence, a defensive weapon - China does not want to take on the US Navy globally with massive carrier battle groups of its own,  it simply wants to keep the US out of what Beijing perceives as its maritime patch, using a (admittedly game-changing) land-launched anti-ship missile. It is with economic force, rather than its military, that Beijing will go on the offensive - and economic offensives tend to be more profitable than military ones.

Seriously, America, it's defensive!

China's involvement in Africa is well-documented (interesting documentary on the topic by Al Jazeera's Witness programme here) and while some would argue this push into the continent is commercially driven rather than politically or diplomatically led, the latter will inevitably follow the former. China is in Africa, in a nutshell, to buy up resources in exchange for hard cash and investment in local infrastructure. I'm fairly certain that, if you were the leader of Zambia, you would listen to the country that was building your roads.

Having already developed a sphere of influence in Africa, both commercial interests and growing diplomatic stature are ensuring that China now looks for new horizons. Its involvement in South America is well underway - a growing presence in Europe is surely inevitable. Only this time, China will be the cash rich  senior member in an investment partnership, rather than merely the hawker of cheap OEM goods to European customers. How can money-savvy China pass up the opportunities that flagging economies in Europe like Spain, Portugal and Greece offer in terms of depreciated assets and the ability to acquire political capital and prestige at bargain basement prices? And if a flagging economy is a big draw for Chinese investors, well, no one flags better than Ireland!

What's more, the usual Irish gombeen approach to business won't work with the People's Republic of China - they know how to play us. Witness the recent promise by Chinese investors to create 1000 jobs in Athlone in a Euro-China business hub. Only catch- those 1000 jobs would be for Chinese immigrants, not the local Irish. The Chinese recognise that Ireland, for the last few years, has focussed almost exclusively on property to the detriment of all other sectors of the economy. And until we can offer them greater incentives than our over-stocked landbanks, the Chinese will only invest in one thing here - land.

Check your wallet, Wen.

That's why, in a rare note of seriousness, this blog is advocating that Ireland proctively grab China's future economic expansion into the EU as the opportunity we need to kick-start our economy, by offering China unique skills that set Ireland apart from our fellow EU members. We have one massive advantage over the rest of the EU for attracting Chinese investment - a little-known fact is that China is an English speaking country, or at least, it is fast on the road to becoming one. As the only English-speaking member of the Eurozone, and as a small, non-threatening nation with no history of imperialism, Ireland is ideally positioned to act as China's partner in Europe. Rather than seeking masses of manufacturing jobs, we need to offer China our knowledge of the EU regulatory environment, our experience of dealing with Brussels, and our ability to network throughout the community, to grow Ireland as the ideal destination for Chinese companies to locate logistics, sales and compliance hubs for their European operations.

Let's see you invade the pitch at Croker now.

 As a solution to our economic woes, its not perfect, and  much work needs to be done - such as beefing up Ireland's paltry representation in China, and introducing Chinese as at least an optional foreign language in schools would be a good start. But as a plan for the future, aiming to be China's gateway to Europe  beats waiting for Ireland's property market to rebound.